The Marlins have 12 games left. The Mets have 12 games left, and the Phils have 11 games left. The Marlins are 5 games behind the Phils and Mets in the loss column. There's a distinct possibility that the wildcard could come from the East, especially if the Marlins take at least one of the next two from the Astros, and the Brewers continue in free fall.
Next week, while the Marlins are playing the Reds and Nats, the Mets will be facing the Cubs. The Cubs have the best record in the NL. The Phillies face the Marlins this weekend, and then play the Braves and Nats.
So, the Marlins still have a shot, especially if the wildcard comes from the East. Assume they take 1 of the remaining two against the Astros, 2 out of 3 against the Phils (gotta figure they'll lose to Moyer), win the makeup game with Cincy, and take 3 from the Nats. At the same time, the Mets drop another game to the Nats, 2 of 3 to the Cubbies, 2 of 3 in Atlanta. When the Marlins arrive at Shea, they are 1 game behind the Mets in the loss column, with 3 to play. Imagine the pressure on the Mets, and the memories of last year. . .
Obviously, everything has to break right for the Marlins. What's changed has been the central division. Houston's lost 3 in a row, and the BrewCrew 5 in a row. Both teams have games left against the Reds and Pirates, and they don't play each other. The Cards have the same record the Marlins have, but they have 4 left against the DBacks,who are still in it, barely, in the West, plus 3 against the Cubs. Make them a longer shot than the long shot Marlins.