Sunday, March 23, 2008

Late Bloomer?

Let's take a look at the stats of our opening day starter, Mark Hendrickson ... I was hoping to see him yesterday, in Fort Lauderdale, but sat through a rain delay that included the most confused, slow and incompetent grounds grew I've ever seen, while reading a bio of Christy Mathewson, which includes a lot about his reputation as an upright moral person (he was the one who said his own teammate, Fred Merkle, didn't touch second base, which cost the Giants a World Series) and gives not much on his baseball accomplishments (in the 1905 World Series, he pitched three shutouts in a six-day span). ... Well, I've looked at Mark Hendrickson, and he's no Christy Mathewson. He is 33, will be 34 in June. Last year, he had his introduction to the National League, starting 12 games. His ERA was 4.68, but actually that's misleading, says Bill James. His ERC -- what his ERA should have been, given his rawing pitching statistics -- was 5.29. But hey, he's had a good spring, and there's always hope, right? Meanwhile, an anonymous scout tells Barry Jackson of The Herald that the Marlins could win 70 to 75 games this year, considerably higher than the sabermetrics model. So there's an upside ....

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