Pedro

well, on sunday, Pedro Martinez only hit 90 mph once on the radar gun, and many of his pitches were in the 60s, but he is crafty and still knows how to fool batters, and he was the winner of the game.... My buddies Mr. Super Fan and French both claim that he's a lock on the hall of fame, despite having less than 220 victories now at the tail end of his career. Seems like a low number to me.... if you want to talk about someone who had a few great years, then Dale Murphy should be in the Hall, too .... but there you have it.... I'm glad I saw him, even if the Marlins lost.

Stat of the Day

According to ESPN, Dan Uggla is now 9 for 18 with the bases loaded this year.

Another Saturday Night

Well, my buddy French was talking about the National League East as we sat in the Upper Deck (B), watching the usual Marlins outing. Nolasco gives up two runs in the first (is this a REQUIREMENT of being a Marlins pitcher?) and the Marlins bats were doing their usual strike outs, and French says, "Well, you know, all the teams in the NL East have flaws," meaning the Phils and Mets (we were wondering if anyone could challenge Cubs in playoffs).... and then Uggla for once has a clutch hit with runners in scoring position, two out, driving in two runs and then, lo and behold, there go the Mets... They gave up FOUR walks in the bottom of the ninth, the first and last of which were UNintentional ... It wasn't so much that Marlins won, Mets lost... Still, with all those damn Met fans around, we walked away from the stadium happy.

Kevin Gregg

Kevin Gregg leads the NL in blown saves. The Marlins are 6 games out, and he has 8 blown saves. 

Here's an example of what I think is the limited usefulness of relief pitcher's stats. These are Gregg's stats for the last two years:

2007: ERA, 3.54, saves 32 out of 36 opportunities (meaning 4 blown saves)

2008: ERA, 3.26; saves 29 of 37 (8 blown saves). 

He probably won't be back next year. It'll be interesting to see how they handle his replacement. You'd think Lindstrom's fastball would make him the heir apparent. . .

D-Train

For the record, Dontrelle Willis has made it back to AAA. He's not burning up the league, but in his last two starts, he has pitched pretty well--5 IP  with 3 earned runs, and 6 IP with 2 earned runs. Looks like he could get a Sept. 1 call-up.

Pinto! Fredi!

Every one of us sitting in the stands knew disaster was coming Sunday afternoon as Pinto strode to the mound in the 7th on Sunday. ... We had a two run lead and by the end of the inning we were down 8-2. Why, Fredi, why? As run after run crossed the plate. A 27 ERA in his past seven games. Hel- LO? I was imaging that Fredi would say afterward that he had to show confidence in his pitchers less they loss confidence in themselves. And that's exactly what Fredi said. Dr. Feel Good. "The No. 1 thing is he has confidence in himself that he can do it. We'll get him through it." Hey, I think Willie Randolph is available. Ozzie Guillen. ... My buddy says it's like Fredi's potty training Pinto. He keeps putting the kid back on the pot until he gets it right ... Or maybe this is an extended spring training in August cuz Marlins have given up. ... Maybe both Fredi and Pinto should be sent to Double AA for extended training. ...

Hanging Around

So, they are still in it. The question for today is: Why?

Don't get me wrong--I'm a happy Marlins fan. The season is more successful than we had any right to expect. All Hail Larry Beinfest and Fredi Gonzalez!

They don't field the ball very well, and their starting pitching, until very recently, has been, to put it charitably, inconsistent.  And, right now the bats are slumping. Their run differential is negative--the only team in either league that is still in contention that has a negative run differential.

 

But they're still in it! Why?

Short answer: I don't know. But,  here are a few interesting stats about the Marlins as a team:

1. Today's starting pitchers aren't bad at all.  They are all slightly better than league average, if you use the ERA+ stat at baseball-reference. Neither the Phillies nor the Mets can match that. Of course, there's a bit of spin in that assertion--three of the Marlins pitchers have relatively few innings. They are young, and they may not withstand the rigors of a pennant race. Volstad has pitched all season, and may begin to tire soon. Sanchez and Johnson are fresh arms, though. The fresh arms have got to be a plus for the Marlins.

2. Using the same ERA+ stat, the Marlins' bullpen is also better than league average:

Gregg, Pinto, Lindstrom, Miller, Waechter and Nelson are all above leave average. This is not too surprising, given the number of come-from-behind victories (33) the Marlins have had. The bullpen is solid. The Phillies' bullpen is better than the Marlins', but the Mets' is not. I don't think ERA is a very useful way to evaluate an individual relief pitcher--too few innings, and some of the runs may be charged to the pitcher he's replacing--but maybe using ERA to look at an entire bullpen isn't so bad.

As a team, the Marlins ERA+ is 93, the Mets 100, and the Phillies 113. The Marlins number includes an aggregate of 266  innings (out of a total of 1064) pitched by Andrew Miller, Mark Hendrickson, and Burke Badenhop. Obviously, since Miller and Badenhop aren't pitching at all, and Hendrickson is a mop up guy, the season long ERA+ probably underestimates the current strength of the pitching staff.

3. Based on the OPS+ stat at baseball reference, the Marlins starting lineup is above average at every position except catcher. At catcher, John Baker is above average, Treanor and Hoover are not. Luis Gonzalez (off the bench) is also an above average hitter by the OPS+ measure.  Neither the Mets nor the Phillies are above average at as many positions as the Marlins. Of course, both the Mets and the Phillies have individual players that score higher on OPS+. But as a team, the Marlins are at 106, the Mets are at 107 and the Phillies are at 103.

Unfortunately, there's no getting around the fact that they have given up 52 unearned runs. Only Arizona (which is in first place), Cincinnati and Washington have given up more. 

The Mets, the Phillies, and the Marlins are all 5-5 for the last 10 games.  Only one of the three is likely to make it to the playoffs (the wild card will almost certainly come from the central division).  While the Phillies are slight favorites, the race is nearly a toss up. Florida is 12-12 against the other two (5-7 against the Mets, 7-5 against the Phils).

The Phils lead the Mets by a game and the Marlins by a game and a half.  One can create some really interesting and bizarre stats by comparing payroll to W-L record. The Mets have one more victory than the Marlins, and a payroll that is probably a bit north of $100 million greater than the Marlins. The frugal Phils have only spent about $70 million or so more than the Marlins for their game and a half edge. Even if the Marlins don't win it, this is an amazing accomplishment. The '97 team had a pretty big payroll, and even the '03 team was below the median,  but not in the bottom 10.

There's another set of bizarre stats that you can generate by combining W-L records with attendance. The Marlins average just under 16,000 at home, and just under 33,000 on the road. I wonder if there has ever been a contending team in any sport that has drawn twice as well on the road as it does at home. 

Who knew there were so many Marlins Maniacs scattered around the country?