... and he is us.
I gripe a lot about management and its decisions, BUT ... they've spent a ton of money on his team over the past winter and going into Saturday, they had won three in a row. Five of us went to Saturday's game -- getting $21 cheap seats in the home run porch behind Stanton.
A Saturday 4:10 game, a new improved team on a hot streak, and the listed attendance was 18,129. They didn't even open the upper deck -- on a Saturday. I doubt if more than 10,000 were in the stands, though a ton may have been crowded into the Clevelander for a beer-tasting special.
After seeing four games on the West Coast in ballparks with far higher attendances, I have to think that ultimately no team with such dismal fan support can prosper in the long run.
Anyway, we saw a great game, with the center field sculpture twice coming to life. Go Marlins.
Champions of the world in 1997 and 2003 -- and now?
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Fire Chuck Hernandez!
 |
| Pitching Coach Chuck Hernandez |
Baseball is still sometimes a game of mystery when teams come/don't come together. It's early in season .. Stanton has to adjust to pressure of biggest contract ever and I hope/think he can do so successfully, but there are a lot of parts to team. 3B, 1B and C big question marks .... 2B doing a lot better than I expected.
But Loria is not a patient man. I'm tempted to wisecrack that he might soon sell everybody to Blue Jays, but my gut tells me that if things don't change pretty quickly, the easiest change will be Redmond. Right? You can't blame upper management for assembling this team, so somebody has to take blame.
But Redmond has always struck me as a pretty steady, smart guy.
So what to do? Rather than throw him under the bus, let's look for someone else. The Marlins have the worst ERA -- by far -- in the majors.
Their starting pitching is utterly miserable. Their closer has had a rough start. So if Loria feels like dumping, why not pick the pitching coach?
Must be his fault, right? He just isn't telling the staff to throw good pitches. Or strikes. Or avoid home runs. (What the hell do pitching coaches talk about? I always think of that meeting on the mound in Bull Durham, in which the coach says, "Candlesticks always make a nice gift.")
It was management that grabbed Latos in exchange for the young Anthony DeSclafani, Phelps for the always disappointing Eovaldi, Haren for Andrew Heaney (disappointing last year in his Marlins debut). And you can't blame management, right?
But ... but ... Last night Eovaldi shined for the Yankees, giving up one run in seven innings. Heaney is the top minors prospect with the Angels and DeSclafani (2-2, 6.27 ERA last year with Marlins) is now 2-0 with 0.86 ERA with Reds.
So maybe Marlins pitching coach is not getting full potential out of his staff. Or maybe everybody should just stay cool for a while. Season is still young. Who knows? If baseball weren't so complicated, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun.
Saturday, April 4, 2015
You Can't Have Too Much Pitching
My analysis of starting pitching for 2015
1 -- Henderson Alvarez -- 12-7 with 2.65 ERA in 2014. What's not to like. And he's only 24.
2 -- Jarred Cosart -- 4-4 and 2.39 with Marlins last year after a poor start with Houston. Also 24. Big upside but how consistent will be. In other words, um, he's a gamble?
3 -- Dan Haren -- 34 -- 13-11 with 4.02 last year. 3.77 lifetime. Has produced for 176-186 innings each of past three years. Probably a dependable inning-eater, but that's about all.
4 -- Mat Latos -- A Cincy fan says -- "he's good, when he's healthy, and he's not healthy quite a bit." So a question mark.
5 -- Tom Koehler -- 28 -- 191 innings last year 10-10 3.81. Probably another Haren.
Waiting in the wings:
David Phelps -- 28 -- 0.95 in 19 innings this spring. Last year with Yanks, 5-5, including 17 starts, with 4.38 ERA in AL, likely to be lower in NL. I'd like to see him get a chance as soon as someone falters.
Jose Urena -- 23 -- Starting season in AAA -- 13-8 3.33 in AA last year. Organization says he has a lot of upside, as does the next guy.
Justin Nicolino -- 23 -- Also starting in AAA. Last year 14-4 2.85 in AA last year.
And oh yes, maybe at some point Jose Fernandez will be back. -
1 -- Henderson Alvarez -- 12-7 with 2.65 ERA in 2014. What's not to like. And he's only 24.
2 -- Jarred Cosart -- 4-4 and 2.39 with Marlins last year after a poor start with Houston. Also 24. Big upside but how consistent will be. In other words, um, he's a gamble?
3 -- Dan Haren -- 34 -- 13-11 with 4.02 last year. 3.77 lifetime. Has produced for 176-186 innings each of past three years. Probably a dependable inning-eater, but that's about all.
4 -- Mat Latos -- A Cincy fan says -- "he's good, when he's healthy, and he's not healthy quite a bit." So a question mark.
5 -- Tom Koehler -- 28 -- 191 innings last year 10-10 3.81. Probably another Haren.
Waiting in the wings:
David Phelps -- 28 -- 0.95 in 19 innings this spring. Last year with Yanks, 5-5, including 17 starts, with 4.38 ERA in AL, likely to be lower in NL. I'd like to see him get a chance as soon as someone falters.
Jose Urena -- 23 -- Starting season in AAA -- 13-8 3.33 in AA last year. Organization says he has a lot of upside, as does the next guy.
Justin Nicolino -- 23 -- Also starting in AAA. Last year 14-4 2.85 in AA last year.
And oh yes, maybe at some point Jose Fernandez will be back. -
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Next Year's Line Up
Well,
Marlins management was either paying close attention to my blog
worrying that Stanton might turn out to be like A-Rod in Texas, or
maybe they were just exhibiting good sense. At any rate, they've made
a bunch of moves. Are they enough to get Marlins to playoffs? Here's
my analysis of the position players.
1B
-- Michael Morse.
33 on
opening day. He had 208
total bases in 2014, on base percentage of .336, costing
$8
million . Replacing Garrett Jones, who
will be 34, who had 204
total bases and .309 OBP and
would have cost $2.75
million, if
I understand correctly.
This feels in my gut like an upgrade but numbers don't show a lot of
improvement.
2B
-- Dee Gordon. 26.
64 stolen bases in 2014, with an OBP
of
.326. Replaces a ton of not-quite candidates. Exciting disruptor at
top of lineup. But
here's a warning from Fishstripes.com: “Gordon is not without
question marks. Prior to last season, he had hit .256/.301/.312, so
this is essentially the Marlins buying high on an otherwise
mediocre-appearing player. ... Gordon struggles with plate
discipline. ... This probably contributes to why his strikeout rate
is so high (16.5 percent career) despite good contact numbers.
“...
In
fact, Dee Gordon may very well be a younger, perhaps slightly better
Emilio Bonifacio. Boni similarly struggled with strikeouts, contact,
and worked hard to improve his middling walk rates. He had no power,
but used tremendous speed to eke out one strong season at the plate.
Gordon is a better runner, and there's a chance he maintains his
phenomenal baserunning numbers, but Miami is getting a Juan Pierre /
Bonifacio-type player in this trade.”
SS
-- Adeimy
Hechevarria.
25.
OBP .308, not a base stealer, 191 TB. Not great numbers, but every time I go to
a game it seems I see him make
a
play that takes my breath away. I like him, despite the numbers and
some questions about his defense in complicated fielding matrix.
3B
-- Martin Prado. 31.
To me this is an improvement. McGehee had a great first half, but to
get to the playoffs, you have to have a 3B
with
more power than McGehee's 4 HR. Prado last year was 12 HR, 221, TB,
with a .321. OPB. McGehee was 220
TB with .355 OPB. Prado might not be final solution, but he's an
upgrade.
Catcher
-- Jarrod Saltalamacchia. 29.
I know he was with a Red Sox champ, but I don't think this type of
catcher gets Marlins to World Series. He has considerable defensive
liabilities. 11 HR, 135 TB, .320 OBP.
Left
field -- Christian
Yelich.
23.
He's
still young, with a lot of upside. Last year 21 SB, 9 HR, 234 TB and
.362 OBP. Only going to get better.
Center
field -- Marcell
Ozuna. 24.
Same
as Yelich – young, lot of upside. Maybe a LOT lot if he improves
plate discipline. Last year 23 HR, .317 OBP, 257 total bases.
Right
field -- Giancarlo
Stanton.
25.
This guy is literally the franchise for years to come. Of course,
everyone expects him to come back from beaning – but how quickly?
Stanton can't get them to the playoffs by himself, but he needs to be
a star or the Marlins won't make it.
More
on pitchers later.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Stanton & A-Rod?
OK, maybe I'm a guy whose glass is half full -- or less than half-full -- but let me offering some sobering thoughts about the prospect of signing Stanton to a long-term contract.
Basically, I'm thinking of the Texas Rangers signing A-Rod. In 2000, the Rangers had fallen to last place. They attempted to revive themselves in one huge move by signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year deal worth $252 million -- $63 million more than the second-richest deal, according to Wikipedia.
I know, I know -- Stanton is not A-Rod. But still ...
Look at the numbers. The Rangers made a big splash with A-Rod but nine players are required to play the game (well, 10 in the AL). A-Rod put up huge numbers in 2001, 2002 and 2003 -- 52, 57 and 42 HR, batting averages of .318, .300 and .298. In 2003, he lead the league in home runs, runs scored and slugging percentage.
Guess what? The Rangers finished in last place each of those four years. Realizing that the deal wasn't working, Texas traded him to the Yankees (though they still own A-Rod a ton of money in a deferred compensation deal).
If ... if the Marlins can't afford all the championship components to go along with Stanton (and these young stars are going to be getting increased amounts through arbitration, if nothing else, in the years ahead), then I worry the Marlins may end up with a super-star surrounded by a cast that doesn't measure up. And that's assuming that Stanton bounces back from his beaning.
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong, for I love the idea of having stars that don't disappear as soon as free agency looms. And a long-term Stanton definitely helps attendance.
Basically, I'm thinking of the Texas Rangers signing A-Rod. In 2000, the Rangers had fallen to last place. They attempted to revive themselves in one huge move by signing Alex Rodriguez to a 10-year deal worth $252 million -- $63 million more than the second-richest deal, according to Wikipedia.
I know, I know -- Stanton is not A-Rod. But still ...
Look at the numbers. The Rangers made a big splash with A-Rod but nine players are required to play the game (well, 10 in the AL). A-Rod put up huge numbers in 2001, 2002 and 2003 -- 52, 57 and 42 HR, batting averages of .318, .300 and .298. In 2003, he lead the league in home runs, runs scored and slugging percentage.
Guess what? The Rangers finished in last place each of those four years. Realizing that the deal wasn't working, Texas traded him to the Yankees (though they still own A-Rod a ton of money in a deferred compensation deal).
If ... if the Marlins can't afford all the championship components to go along with Stanton (and these young stars are going to be getting increased amounts through arbitration, if nothing else, in the years ahead), then I worry the Marlins may end up with a super-star surrounded by a cast that doesn't measure up. And that's assuming that Stanton bounces back from his beaning.
Anyway, I hope I'm wrong, for I love the idea of having stars that don't disappear as soon as free agency looms. And a long-term Stanton definitely helps attendance.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Andrew Miller facing Miggy (?!)
When Andrew Miller came in for the Orioles on Thursday night to face Miggy, my mind, well, boggled. ... I'd lost track of Andrew Miller, frankly, and there he was, his tall lanky self, with the announcers crowing about what a great pickup he had been for the Orioles from the Red Sox and how he had become a great fixture of the super Orioles bullpen.
Miller, one of the Tiger prospects in the Miggy trade that will live in infamy, was a bust as a Marlin. And what did we get for him when we finally traded him away in 2010? I had to look it up: Dustin Richardson, another complete bust, put on waviers the following year. Zero benefit there.
Maybe it's just my gloomy imagination, but it seems like a lot of folks seem to improve when they no longer have a Marlins uniform on. Here's what the Marlins got for some other players who are in the playoffs this year:
Jason Vargas -- six solid innings in a quality start for the Royals Thursday night. The Marlins traded him in the Mets on November 20, 2006 for Matt Lindstrom (who?) and Henry Owens (who?).
Omar Infante -- solid 2B for the Royals. Traded by the Marlins to the Tigers July 23, 2012 for Rob Brantly (two mediocre years with Marlins, spent all of 2014 in AAA), Brian Flynn (25 innings with Marlins over past two years, ERA 8.64) and Jacob Turner (4-7 with a 5.97 ERA in 2014 before being dumped to Cubs). Tigers complained that this was such a bad deal for them that they insisted we also throw in Anibal Sanchez. And of course we did.
Alejandro de Aza -- My buddy Orlando used to call him Mr. March or "Milk Carton" because he used to have great spring trainings, then vanish for the year with this or that injuries. Now starting outfielder for the Orioles. The White Sox claimed him on waivers in 2009 -- so the Marlins got nothing for him.
Josh Willingham -- reserve outfielder for the Royals after some solid years with Minnesota and Washington. Traded by the Marlins (with Scott Olsen) in 2008 for P.J. Dean (who?), Emilio Bonifacio (always a disaster in my opinion) and Jake Smolinski (who?).
And lest we forget ...
Miguel Cabrera -- top hitter in the ML (BA, HR, RBI, etc) since the Marlins traded him to Detroit. Just to pick at the scab once again, we got in return Andrew Miller (see above), Dallas Trahern (dumped by Marlins without getting any compensation), Mike Rabelo (dumped), Eulogio De La Cruz (dumped), Burke Badenhop (traded in 2011 to Tampa Bay for Jake Jefferies, who seems to have been out of baseball this year), and Cameron Maybin (traded in 2010 to Padres for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. Mujica, who showed considerable promise, was dumped to the Cards for Zack Cox, .282 with eight HR in AAA this year, and Ryan Webb, released 2013 and signed by ... the Orioles).
So the Tigers got Miggy, and we have ended up with a AAA third baseman.
Meanwhile, the Tigers saw something in J.D. Martinez, born in Miami, schooled in Broward. When he was released in March by the Astros after a mediocre performance, the Tigers picked him up and he had a super year ... and where were the Marlins?
Miller, one of the Tiger prospects in the Miggy trade that will live in infamy, was a bust as a Marlin. And what did we get for him when we finally traded him away in 2010? I had to look it up: Dustin Richardson, another complete bust, put on waviers the following year. Zero benefit there.
Maybe it's just my gloomy imagination, but it seems like a lot of folks seem to improve when they no longer have a Marlins uniform on. Here's what the Marlins got for some other players who are in the playoffs this year:
Jason Vargas -- six solid innings in a quality start for the Royals Thursday night. The Marlins traded him in the Mets on November 20, 2006 for Matt Lindstrom (who?) and Henry Owens (who?).
Omar Infante -- solid 2B for the Royals. Traded by the Marlins to the Tigers July 23, 2012 for Rob Brantly (two mediocre years with Marlins, spent all of 2014 in AAA), Brian Flynn (25 innings with Marlins over past two years, ERA 8.64) and Jacob Turner (4-7 with a 5.97 ERA in 2014 before being dumped to Cubs). Tigers complained that this was such a bad deal for them that they insisted we also throw in Anibal Sanchez. And of course we did.
Alejandro de Aza -- My buddy Orlando used to call him Mr. March or "Milk Carton" because he used to have great spring trainings, then vanish for the year with this or that injuries. Now starting outfielder for the Orioles. The White Sox claimed him on waivers in 2009 -- so the Marlins got nothing for him.
Josh Willingham -- reserve outfielder for the Royals after some solid years with Minnesota and Washington. Traded by the Marlins (with Scott Olsen) in 2008 for P.J. Dean (who?), Emilio Bonifacio (always a disaster in my opinion) and Jake Smolinski (who?).
And lest we forget ...
Miguel Cabrera -- top hitter in the ML (BA, HR, RBI, etc) since the Marlins traded him to Detroit. Just to pick at the scab once again, we got in return Andrew Miller (see above), Dallas Trahern (dumped by Marlins without getting any compensation), Mike Rabelo (dumped), Eulogio De La Cruz (dumped), Burke Badenhop (traded in 2011 to Tampa Bay for Jake Jefferies, who seems to have been out of baseball this year), and Cameron Maybin (traded in 2010 to Padres for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb. Mujica, who showed considerable promise, was dumped to the Cards for Zack Cox, .282 with eight HR in AAA this year, and Ryan Webb, released 2013 and signed by ... the Orioles).
So the Tigers got Miggy, and we have ended up with a AAA third baseman.
Meanwhile, the Tigers saw something in J.D. Martinez, born in Miami, schooled in Broward. When he was released in March by the Astros after a mediocre performance, the Tigers picked him up and he had a super year ... and where were the Marlins?
Monday, September 29, 2014
2014 Looking Back
Summary -- All we need is a catcher, first baseman, second baseman and third baseman and we've got a chance for the playoffs next year.
Let me start by saying that I (and folks like me) are one reason why the Marlins are cheapskates when it comes to spending money on ballplayers.
A lot of us don't like to spend money on the Marlins. This year, I attended 11 games (seeing nine wins, two losses), and to do this I spent a mere $10 on average per game. Four games I attended for free (three as an old fart on free senior Thursdays and one on a free group ticket a buddy got). Another game I got in for $8 -- a fellow had a bunch of Chevron deals.
Compare that with five out-of-town ballparks I visited -- San Francisco, Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City, Atlanta -- where I paid an average of $31 a ticket, topped by $49 to see the Cards, a team that sells out often as it draws fans from hundreds of miles around. (Which comes first? Chicken or egg? Great attendance/teams consistently in the playoffs.)
The upshot is that not only do the Marlins have poor attendance (1.7 million for 2014, according to Baseball Reference.com, ahead of only the White Sox, Rays and Indians), but they don't get much income from those tickets they do sell.
That's why (according to ESPN) the Marlins paid a mere $46.4 million in salaries. Only the Astros were lower.
Now, having said that, let me look at the 2014 team, which did an astonishing job considering they lost their star pitcher in mid-season and their star hitter with several weeks left -- 15 wins better than last year and out of last place for the first time since 2010. They were a lot more fun to watch, compared to last year's stultifying 100-loss season.
This team prospered because of the young outfielders and the bullpen, but it's a long way from a playoff contention.
1 -- Salty -- our catcher was paid $6 million this year, $7 million next year, $8 million in 2016, according to baseballreference.com. For this we got .220 batting average, .362 slugging and pretty poor defense. This guy doesn't get us to the playoffs. I'm hoping Realmuto develops quickly.
2 -- Heath Bell -- our poorest performer. Well, actually, he's long gone, but he continued to cost $4 million this year -- third highest salary on the team.
3 -- Furcal -- $3.5 million for nothing. Maybe it was worth a shot, but it certainly didn't work out.
4 -- McGehee -- .287 BA and led the team in hits. Probably better than we might have expected, and cheap at $1.1 million. BUT ... he's our third baseman and cleanup hitter, had only four HR and .357 slugging. Marlins need lot more power out of this position to get to playoffs.
5 -- Jones -- 13 errors at first base (Salty had 15 btw). Batting .246 with 15 HR and slugging of .411. There are not championship numbers. He cost $2.7 million this year, $5 million next year. Does that make him the next Heath Bell?
Well, I haven't tackled starting pitching, but we'll just go with this. I think Yogi said it: "You can't have too much pitching."
Let me start by saying that I (and folks like me) are one reason why the Marlins are cheapskates when it comes to spending money on ballplayers.
A lot of us don't like to spend money on the Marlins. This year, I attended 11 games (seeing nine wins, two losses), and to do this I spent a mere $10 on average per game. Four games I attended for free (three as an old fart on free senior Thursdays and one on a free group ticket a buddy got). Another game I got in for $8 -- a fellow had a bunch of Chevron deals.
Compare that with five out-of-town ballparks I visited -- San Francisco, Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City, Atlanta -- where I paid an average of $31 a ticket, topped by $49 to see the Cards, a team that sells out often as it draws fans from hundreds of miles around. (Which comes first? Chicken or egg? Great attendance/teams consistently in the playoffs.)
The upshot is that not only do the Marlins have poor attendance (1.7 million for 2014, according to Baseball Reference.com, ahead of only the White Sox, Rays and Indians), but they don't get much income from those tickets they do sell.
That's why (according to ESPN) the Marlins paid a mere $46.4 million in salaries. Only the Astros were lower.
Now, having said that, let me look at the 2014 team, which did an astonishing job considering they lost their star pitcher in mid-season and their star hitter with several weeks left -- 15 wins better than last year and out of last place for the first time since 2010. They were a lot more fun to watch, compared to last year's stultifying 100-loss season.
This team prospered because of the young outfielders and the bullpen, but it's a long way from a playoff contention.
1 -- Salty -- our catcher was paid $6 million this year, $7 million next year, $8 million in 2016, according to baseballreference.com. For this we got .220 batting average, .362 slugging and pretty poor defense. This guy doesn't get us to the playoffs. I'm hoping Realmuto develops quickly.
2 -- Heath Bell -- our poorest performer. Well, actually, he's long gone, but he continued to cost $4 million this year -- third highest salary on the team.
3 -- Furcal -- $3.5 million for nothing. Maybe it was worth a shot, but it certainly didn't work out.
4 -- McGehee -- .287 BA and led the team in hits. Probably better than we might have expected, and cheap at $1.1 million. BUT ... he's our third baseman and cleanup hitter, had only four HR and .357 slugging. Marlins need lot more power out of this position to get to playoffs.
5 -- Jones -- 13 errors at first base (Salty had 15 btw). Batting .246 with 15 HR and slugging of .411. There are not championship numbers. He cost $2.7 million this year, $5 million next year. Does that make him the next Heath Bell?
Well, I haven't tackled starting pitching, but we'll just go with this. I think Yogi said it: "You can't have too much pitching."
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